Methodology
How Bracket Model turns your metric preferences into a complete NCAA Tournament prediction.
How the Weighting System Works
Every team in the bracket is scored across 10 basketball metrics, each on a 0–100 scale. You control how much each metric matters by setting its weight (also 0–100).
Team Score Formula
teamScore = Σ(weight[metric] × team[metric])
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Σ(weight[metric])Dividing by the sum of weights normalizes the score to the 0–100 range regardless of how you spread your weights.
Once both teams in a matchup have a score, we compute win probability using a logistic function that also accounts for seeding:
Matchup Simulation
diff = team1Score - team2Score seedAdvantage = (team2.seed - team1.seed) × 0.8 combined = diff + seedAdvantage P(team1 wins) = 1 / (1 + e^(-combined × 0.15))
The seed advantage term means a 1-seed gets a meaningful built-in edge over a 16-seed (~24 points of "combined" advantage) even if their raw metrics were equal. This reflects the real-world rarity of 16-seed upsets.
The simulation is fully deterministic — no randomness. The same weights always produce the same bracket. This lets you compare and share results meaningfully.
Bracket Structure
Bracket Model follows the standard NCAA Tournament format with 64 teams across 4 regions (East, South, Midwest, West). Within each region, the standard first-round matchup pairs are:
Final Four: East champion vs West champion · South champion vs Midwest champion
The 10 Metrics
Offensive Rating
offOffensive Rating measures points scored per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength. Teams with elite offenses can overcome defensive deficiencies in high-scoring tournament games.
Stats used
- Adj. Offensive Efficiency (AdjOE) — Points scored per 100 possessions, adjusted for the quality of defenses faced.
- Effective FG% (eFG%) — Accounts for the added value of three-pointers: (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA.
- True Shooting % (TS%) — Shooting efficiency across all shot types including free throws: Pts / (2 × (FGA + 0.44×FTA)).
Defensive Rating
defDefensive Rating measures points allowed per 100 possessions. Defense historically correlates strongly with deep tournament runs — teams that can clamp down under pressure win close games.
Stats used
- Adj. Defensive Efficiency (AdjDE) — Points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for the quality of offenses faced. Lower is better.
- Opponent eFG% — How well the defense limits quality shots for the opposing offense.
- Block % & Steal % — Rate at which the defense generates blocks and steals per opponent possession.
Strength of Schedule
sosStrength of Schedule quantifies how difficult a team's regular season opponents were. Battle-tested teams tend to handle the intensity of March better than those who feasted on weak competition.
Stats used
- Adjusted SOS — Average adjusted efficiency margin of all opponents faced, weighted by game location (home/away/neutral).
- Non-Conference SOS — Isolates out-of-conference schedule difficulty, which teams control themselves and signals ambition.
- NET Quadrant Record — NCAA's official metric grouping wins/losses into Q1–Q4 based on opponent rank and game location. Q1 wins are the most valuable.
Tempo
tempoTempo (pace of play) reflects possessions per game. Fast-paced teams can drag sluggish opponents out of their comfort zones, while slow teams grind games into fewer possessions where upsets are less likely.
Stats used
- Adj. Tempo (AdjT) — Estimated possessions per 40 minutes, adjusted for opponent pace tendencies.
- Transition Rate — Percentage of offensive possessions that come in transition (fast break) vs. half-court sets.
- Average Shot Clock at Release — How quickly a team shoots, indicating whether they push pace or milk the clock.
Experience
expExperience captures how many minutes are played by upperclassmen. Tournament basketball is a high-pressure environment where composure and familiarity with big moments matter tremendously.
Stats used
- Continuity % — Percentage of minutes returning from the prior season's roster, measuring how much of the team stayed together.
- Average Player Experience (Years) — Average years of college experience for each player, weighted by minutes played.
- Upperclassman Minute Share — Proportion of total team minutes played by juniors and seniors.
Tournament Pedigree
tourTournament Pedigree reflects historical NCAA Tournament success, coaching experience on big stages, and program culture. Programs with a tradition of winning tend to prepare their players better for March pressure.
Stats used
- 5-Year Tournament Win % — Win rate in NCAA Tournament games over the past five appearances, capturing recent relevance.
- Final Four Appearances (Last 10 Yrs) — Count of Final Four trips since 2016, showing consistent championship-level performance.
- Head Coach Tournament Record — The head coach's personal career NCAA Tournament win-loss record, including at prior programs.
Free Throw %
ftFree Throw % is crucial in close tournament games. Teams that shoot well at the line can ice games in the final minutes, while poor free throw shooting is a classic upset catalyst — the 'hack-a' strategy exploits this.
Stats used
- Team Free Throw % (FT%) — Season-long free throw percentage for all players on the roster.
- Free Throw Rate (FTr) — FTA / FGA — how often a team gets to the line. High FTr teams are harder to foul out of games.
- Clutch FT% (last 5 min, within 5 pts) — Free throw shooting specifically in late-game, close situations — the most tournament-relevant context.
Rebounding
rebRebounding (total rebounding margin) determines who controls extra possessions. Teams that dominate the glass create more shots for themselves and deny opponents second chances — a compounding advantage over 40 minutes.
Stats used
- Offensive Rebound % (OR%) — Percentage of available offensive rebounds secured. High OR% teams effectively create extra possessions.
- Defensive Rebound % (DR%) — Percentage of available defensive rebounds secured. Limits opponents' second-chance points.
- Total Rebound Margin — Average rebounding differential per game (team rebounds minus opponent rebounds).
Turnover Margin
toTurnover Margin (turnovers forced minus turnovers committed per game). In the tournament, every possession counts — teams that protect the ball and create chaos for opponents have a compounding edge over fewer possessions.
Stats used
- Turnover % (TO%) — Percentage of offensive possessions that end in a turnover. Lower is better for the offense.
- Forced Turnover % (Opp TO%) — How often the defense forces turnovers per opponent possession. Higher signals a disruptive defense.
- Steal % — Steals per opponent possession — the highest-leverage type of turnover, directly generating fast breaks.
3PT Shooting
three3PT Shooting reflects three-point attempt rate and efficiency. Hot shooting can make any team dangerous for a weekend, but variance also makes 3PT-dependent teams prone to cold-shooting exits — the classic 'lives and dies by the three' risk.
Stats used
- 3PT% (Three-Point Percentage) — Percentage of three-point attempts made across the season. The baseline efficiency measure.
- 3PA Rate (3PAr) — 3PA / FGA — how reliant the offense is on three-pointers. High rates amplify the volatility of the metric.
- Opponent 3PT% — How well the defense contests threes. Limiting opponent three-point shooting is often the deciding factor in upsets.
🎨 The Favorite Color Weight
The Favorite Color slider is a fun meta-weight that biases the bracket toward teams whose school colors match yours. It works the same way as any other metric weight — it's just that the underlying "stat" is color affinity instead of a basketball number.
Color Affinity Formula
Because it's folded into the same weighted-average formula as every other metric, the color weight competes on equal footing — a colorWeight of 50 carries the same influence as any other slider at 50.
Primary color match (100 pts)
A team whose dominant uniform color matches your pick gets full affinity. Pick orange and Tennessee gets the full boost — Vol Orange is their identity color.
Secondary color match (50 pts)
Teams with your color as a secondary get half the boost. Pick orange and Auburn (navy + burnt orange) or Florida (blue + orange) get a partial lift — enough to pull off an upset, not a guaranteed win.
Practical examples
- colorWeight = 0 — color has no effect; pure stats and seed
- colorWeight = 30 — subtle tiebreaker; same-color teams edge out close matchups
- colorWeight = 100, all others = 0 — full chaos mode; the bracket is decided almost entirely by school colors
⚠️ Disclaimer
Bracket Model is a fun, educational tool for basketball fans. Team statistics are sourced from Sports-Reference CBB and ESPN for the 2025–26 season. Results are for entertainment purposes only and should not be used as the basis for gambling, wagering, or any financial decisions.